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LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING EXCEL SERIES
Risk Analytics and Predictive Intelligence Division (Syntelli RAPID)ġ.5 Benefits and Limitations of Using Crystal Ball 9ĬHAPTER 2 Analyzing Crystal Ball Forecasts 11ĬHAPTER 3 Building A Crystal Ball Model 29ģ.2 Defining Crystal Ball Assumptions and Forecasts 30ĬHAPTER 4 Selecting Crystal Ball Assumptions 37Ĥ.1 Crystal Ball’s Basic Distributions 37Ĥ.2 Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 55ĥ.2 Decision Table with One Decision Variable 81ĥ.3 Decision Table with Two Decision Variables 87ĬHAPTER 7 Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return 117ĬHAPTER 8 Modeling Financial Statements 137Ĩ.2 Tornado Chart and Sensitivity Analysis 138ĩ.2 Single-period Analytical Solution 148ĬHAPTER 11 Simulating Financial Time Series 163ġ1.5 Multiplicative Random Walk Model 173ġ2.2 Risk-neutral Pricing and the Black-Scholes Model 188ġ3.1 Financial Options and Real Options 205ġ3.2 Applications of Real Options Analysis 206ġ3.3 Black-Scholes Real Options Insights 209ġ4.4 Using CVaR to Manage Credit Risk 227ĬHAPTER 15 Construction Project Management 229ĪPPENDIX A Crystal Ball’s Probability Distributions 241ĪPPENDIX B Generating Assumption Values 279ĪPPENDIX C Variance Reduction Techniques 287Ĭ.1 Using Crystal Ball to Value an Asian Option 288
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LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING EXCEL HOW TO
This reliable resource reviews the basics and covers how to define and refine probability distributions in financial modeling, and explores the concepts driving the simulation modeling process. It answers the essential question of why risk analysis is vital to the decision-making process, for any problem posed in finance and investment. This revised and updated edition of the bestselling book on financial modeling provides the tools and techniques needed to perform spreadsheet simulation.